Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
