It was eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
According to Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping Rogers to save the day with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more against United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a vital England player.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
